Is America bankrupt? Is the world? Could a Great or even Mega-Depression be part of the near future? If so, might the Second Coming of Christ be fast approaching?  Red-states, blue-states – it’s a verbal Civil War!  Will the nation split in two? Or ten?  There are many mega-trends of wickedness in motion, and there are potential triggers that could initiate a series of catastrophes that could rival any challenges of the last century.

• Part 1: Why Global Warming is the Least of our Worries




Part 1: Global Warming?  There are bigger fish to fry.

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• Why I wrote this essay (namely I think it’s important for “those who have eyes to see” to prepare now for survival in a terrible economy).
  
  
• Why those concerned with global warming are barking up the wrong tree.
  
  
• Why concern over global warming is a valid and noble endeavor, even if it poses a much lesser threat than economically-induced global grand-mal seizures.
  
  
• The essay is kind of scary.  Don’t miss part 5 where I “look on the bright side”.

This 5-part essay is something I’ve written to help me sort my thoughts, but also something I believe useful for my relatives and for a world-wide audience desirous to prepare for the possibility of hard times. I am a devout but average member of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints, and take many of my points from truths I believe I have learned from the Bible, the Book of Mormon, modern prophets, secular sources, and the Spirit of Truth. I am not a financial expert and I have little scholarly knowledge, but I do have a knack for discerning trends and the Big Picture.  I think the “experts” often do not see the forest for the trees. I’m just a regular guy who tries to pay attention and discern what’s going on, and could easily be wrong. Knowing that, you’ll comprehend what I’m saying much better.

Is it the best of times, or the worst of times?

 The present world is such a place of confusion. Who can really figure it out? Truly there are many who “call good evil and evil good” (Isaiah 5:20). Here is a mechanism I have found useful to discern what is Really important, with a capital-R. Very often, it is the exact opposite of what the worldly and godless think is “truth” or “important”.  Many would have us believe that life has never been worse on planet earth, and that the United States is the primary reason why.  A rational, truth-seeking soul, who uses their mind, heart, and prayer; can, given time to ponder, easily recognize that the truth is exactly opposite. The world has never known prosperity and wide-spread improvement in freedom, enlightenment, and hope as it has now – and the United States has been largely the vehicle of choice by which God has blessed the earth with these wonderful things.  The past many decades have been the best of times, and the USA was the biggest factor in that. But the wicked among us have been “fundamentally transforming us” for decades, and without vigilance God will judge us to be more evil than good, and we will experience hard trials as in past times.

What are our biggest threats? Republicans? Democrats? Global Warming?

There are a lot of “Boogy Men” subjects out there: “The world will surely end if…”

A) Obama is President; B) Romney is President; C) We stay in the Middle East;

D) We leave the Middle East;  E) We don’t stop Global Warming; F) All of the above.

Answer is?  N – None of the above.  I am concerned like everyone about finding our way through these things. But there may be a lurking monster that is far more terrible than all of these.  I wrote the first version of this essay in 2006, and I could see there were massive tectonic trends that could cause global economic quakes more significant than anything else we worry about.  I knew then that we could be sailing into a perfect financial storm, and recent years are proving that is exactly the case.

I don’t want to contribute to a sense of gloom and hopelessness.  My intent is just the opposite.  I hope that seeing the potential for tough times will give us motive to prepare so that we can be hopeful and optimistic of our ability to deal with the challenges of either peace and prosperity, or the loss thereof.  “If ye are prepared, ye shall not fear”.

On with part 2, or the essence of the Perfect Financial Storm!

 

• Part 2: Essence of the Perfect Financial Storm




Part 2: Essence of the Perfect Financial Storm

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• 20 reasons a serious depression may be well under way very soon.
  
  
• American life is like being on a runaway train, with a drunk engineer at the helm (Uncle Sam) who has lost his sense of duty, and has no comprehension of the impending disaster.  Worse, the passengers and crew are entirely elated at the incredible speed, and no one wants to see the train slow down (repent).
  
  
• The Titanic is also a fitting metaphor
  
  

The far left is convinced that global warming and nearly all other ills are traceable to the evils of the United States. It is “Global Climate Change” that will bring disaster upon us, they say. Or maybe we haven’t given teachers unions and other government unions enough money, and that’s why we’re facing disaster.  They have missed the forest for the trees. Like them, I also am convinced that hard times of Biblical proportions could easily be part of my generation’s future, but it won’t come from what the left says is bad about America (and is actually good).  It is more likely to come from what actually is bad about America and the world – simple wickedness and blatant violation of the 10 commandments and the Golden Rule.

I am certainly not a prophet, and I’m not sure of the details for how this could unfold, but it doesn’t take a prophet to read many of the signs. But we can learn from prophets and even receive personal revelation that can motivate us today in ways that will prepare us for hard times in our future.

I’m more convinced all the time that a serious economic depression could be underway within a few years. A “Perfect Storm” seems to be brewing. Even if the present “Cat-2 Hurricane” calms for a season, it is just the calm before the Big One.  There are many problems that by themselves are large – and we always kick the can down the road. There will come a point where they can be kicked no further, and in fact many will converge to create monster waves and winds. I’ve wanted to gather my reasoning into one place for quite some time. I am weak in defending this with links and facts (they’re out there, I just don’t have time to assemble them all), but I hope I can help you connect some of the dots in your own mind.

 Why a depression?

1. Federal Bankruptcy?: When I first wrote this in 2006, I knew we were bankrupt at $9 trillion in debt. Now we’re at $15 trillion in early 2012. This is the largest national security threat there is, but few see it as such. 
2. Personal Bankruptcy?: Everyone else is in debt also. One could say this has long been the case, since debt is necessary for a home and many businesses – but this kind of debt financed luxury and affluent living. We are addicted to debt.  The total personal, corporate, and government debt exceeded $53 trillion in 2006, or - $700k per family of 4.  How long would it take you to cover that bill with your disposable income?
3. Energy/Food Crisis:  Energy and commodities are up 3-4 times what they were in 2000.  Food is following a similar inflation rate.  We have not built new electric or other energy infrastructure, and have taken only modest steps to conserve.  Many believe Peak Oil is upon us within a decade, and as demand rises and supply drops, prices will increase perhaps 100 or 200% from here – a shock the economy could not weather given issues noted here. 
4. Mortgage Crisis:  Want to see the tallest roller coaster in the world?  Look at Shiller’s index of housing prices over 120 years, and you may conclude that even though your home has dropped in value, it might still have a long, long way to go.   
5. Lost Opportunity:  China and India are rising powers. Is God smiling on them? He does tend to bless the humble and humble the vain. They are humble people who are trying very hard to learn science, entrepreneurship, and all that made us great. With crumbling education, we are irreversibly passing the technological torch to them.
6. Failing Generations:  Our kids are not doing well. Single parent families are everywhere. Kids are unloved, over-sexed, and burdened with too much. Huge numbers will not receive the education they need to succeed. More importantly, they are not receiving the character they need to succeed.
7. Mass gluttony, licentiousness, addiction:  Vices of all kinds are widespread and powerful.  Pornography is the most recent wide-spread addiction.  Its maladies are likely to be the most destructive of all, yet its evil fruits may still take a few years to fully ripen.
8. The Nation God smiled on will be humble, or it will not be God’s Nation:  “Pride goeth before the fall”. We’ve had prosperity for nearly 70 years, and that has made us too proud of ourselves, and forgetful of God’s roll in our happiness.  God is not against “tough love” or “strong medicine” if that’s what it takes to get us to remember Him.
9.  Prophetic Warning:  In 1998 President Gordon B. Hinckley warned about the need to be temporally prepared. He noted the high bankruptcy rate even in the midst of tremendous prosperity. He talked of Pharaoh’s dream of 7 years of prosperity as had never been known followed by 7 years of famine as had never been known. He said “There is a portent of stormy weather ahead to which we’d better give heed”. Portent in the dictionary means “omen of pending calamity”.
10.  “Seven Years” is up:  That was 14 years ago, and USA and the world have now had 65+ years of prosperity unlike anything ever known since Adam.  The Dow-Jones idol worshipers think they’ve safe guarded against depressions, but the One True God has repeatedly shown the wisdom of men to be folly.
11. Baby boomer’s massive “scheduled market divestment”:  I’ve read several books that take note of the law that created 401(k) retirement accounts (ERISA), and recognize that in about 2012, the Baby-Boomers must begin withdrawing money from the stock market en mass. Some writers are convinced that at the least this will trigger a downturn, and some forecast depression from this factor alone. With millions of non-investors in the market, it could also cause a panic where even those who don’t need to withdraw, still move their money in an effort to avoid losing it.  “The Coming Generational Storm” is a good book for this.
12. Social Security is shaky:  Social Security used to have 17 workers for every retiree (I think). Soon it will have only 3. Expensive technology helps the elderly live longer, but that expense will land on their children and grandchildren, who are too few, too broke, and too unable to earn high incomes to pay for it all.
13. The world doesn’t have enough people:  What? We just passed 7-billion!  Yeah, but the nations responsible for wealth creation are all going backward, not forward.  How is Germany alone supposed to save Europe, when Germans have not been replacing themselves?
14. Keep up with Jones’ at all cost!:  Home equity loans, interest only mortgages – all are evidence of our willingness to figuratively “drive with the wheels right on the edge of the cliff”. Any bumps will push a lot of people over the edge. 
15. High Taxes:  Taxes are high and there is no reason to believe they will ever come down. Too many unionized bureocrats on white-collar welfare.
16. Wickedness outpacing righteousness?:  ‘The wheat and tares shall grow together.”  Righteousness is growing among millions, but I believe wickedness may be growing among even more millions. Many wicked seeds were sewn decades – like boomers not wanting to have kids themselves – and hence not enough people to support their old age. The fruit of wickedness will be pain, and but pain is good if it turns our attention back to God.
17. Statesman smothered by weeds:  The first 150-years of America was a beautiful garden of Statesmen in both parties, but it has been taken over in the last 80 by Morning Glorepublicans and Dandycrats - some of the hardest to remove noxious weeds known to man!  In my mind, the lesser evil is the former, but they’re weak and they’ve lost their way.  Republican politicians shy away from challenging shrieking leftist, and they even helped spend us into bankruptcy!  The solution is NOT a third party, which just divides our votes and ensures that the left will win. It IS to replace Republican weaklings who run to the center, with big-tent Reaganesque statesmen with a talent for bringing the center to them.
18. How good are our walls?:  The economy is more fragile than we recognized. September 11^th, the housing crisis, Europe, etc. are making us more aware of that all the time. We are very proud of our great and spacious buildings, and other achievements.  Everyone is so sure our “strong walls” (military, intelligence, economy, etc.) will keep the enemies out. Not only can enemies get around the walls, but we can’t even maintain the walls with our present internal strife, let alone if we have economic woes to deal with. Can’t even seem to build a wall at the Mexican border!  A political cartoon showed our weapon of choice as an F-16, and theirs as a 32-cent stamp! (Anthrax letters).  The ways around our walls are endless.
19. Slaves to world and activist opinion:  We ARE the paper tiger!  We have enemies without and within that wish for nothing more than to dedicate their lives to destroy us and all that is good.  What do we do about this cancer? We try witch doctor herbal remedies because we know chemotherapy hurts. News flash! It hurts, but you live! On this course, we have a few more nice days now, but we die in the end.  
20. There have always been tough times:  Great troubles have been common in all ages, to include the Great Depression and two world wars very recently. It is foolish to live life completely exposed to the potential for such ravages, assuming such can never occur simply because it hasn’t during our life times.
21. Bible assures us troubled times will continue:  John’s Revelation pronounces great woes upon the world in the last days, right up until the Second Coming. Good triumphs in the end, but the “wish Christ would get here soon” days will be with us all the way there.
22. Prophetic temporal advice:  Never-ending warnings from modern prophets to acquire food and essentials to last a year or more.  The pace and urgency of messages seems to be increasing.

 “Cap’n, She’s Gonna Blow!” – Scotty to Kirk, in all Star-Trek episodes but three  

Life feels like a train that is ever accelerating and currently moving 160 mph on a track that was designed for 60 mph. Our locomotive’s boiler was not designed for pressure like this. Our fat and drunken engineers (political leadership) partied too long in the back with the mindless celebrity culture.  Surely they sense the speeds now are too dangerous, but would never admit it, and are even more loath to admit their role. Beside, they are so excited by the speed that they wouldn’t slow down even if they were sober enough to remember how.  They are too confident in the systems they think they know so well. I am a civil engineer, and I wonder which part of the system will give way first, and how many more miles we can go. It doesn’t much matter what triggers the disaster: if the wheels come off, or the boiler bursts, or if we skip the track, the result will be a whole lot of crunching metal and bloody people.

I hope for a hero as in oft-repeated Hollywood train scenes. Chris Christy making his way to the front along the top hoping to wrest the train from the inebriates. Or maybe Mitt Romney grabbing the breaks to save us in the nick of time from the seemingly unavoidable. But I feel alone in the theater as I watch, supposing myself to be one in a thousand or even ten-thousand who is sober enough to sense a potential pending calamity, and so far our heroes either aren’t making it, or may not be able or willing to do enough, fast enough.

Being in no position to stop it, at least I can attempt to prepare myself and those in my circle temporally, mentally, and spiritually for the impact.  I can live like the ant and not the grasshopper.  I am sometimes criticized, “You’ve got to live a little.”   True, it is still summer, and I think even ants can appreciate that.  I do enjoy life, and we don’t really live like it’s already the Great Depression.  I often think of the words of Christ, “He who has eyes to see, let him see”. I am blind in so many ways, but this is the one thing I feel like I am seeing more clearly than most, and I’m happy to curb my appetite now if it helps me put food on the table later.

“It is a mathematical certainty.  This ship will sink!” – Engineer of Titanic, on Titanic

The movie “Titanic” may be a fitting analogy.  The initial impact didn’t even spill their Champaign.  It seemed to most that nothing serious had happened, so the song and dance continued.  Remember the engineer who designed the ship?  He quickly summoned a report on the damage, and then zoned off into despair as he heard “5 ruptured compartments” – a daze that impeded him too long from effectively mobilizing crew and passengers to deal with the impending doom he knew was coming!  He knew mathematically their arrival at the bottom of the Atlantic was now only a matter of time, yet in his astonishment he could not muster the good sense to begin immediate action on a plan to fully utilize available life boats.  The passengers, even when faced with the obvious conclusion that all was lost, still held out hope to the end that by some miracle the ship would not sink. I believe America is hitting icebergs.  It’s hard to tell how many compartments have been ruptured.  Is our sinking now inevitable or can we still limp to shore?  I believe these things: 

1. We should avoid further selfish credit-spending (personal on up to federal) and other gluttonous sins that equate to rupturing more compartments.
2. God can repair the damage if we repent early enough, and we can suffer “just a little”.  If we continue in sin, we will suffer more acute pain.  Pharaoh had 10 plagues before finally breaking his stubbornness. God will send a rescue if we humble ourselves before our 10^th plague.
3. Jonah’s Nineveh chose early repentance.  I am skeptical that those now living will choose the “early repentance” option in large enough numbers to offset those who want to continue indulging and even join in the orgy.  Early repentance seems impossible, so pain is certain.  Will we repent after the first pain?  Or will we merely become more hard-hearted, sealing our doom?

I think we are proving we are not Ninevah, but I’m also optimistic we’re not as stubborn as Pharaoh. So I conclude that the Ship of State will sink far enough to create truly humbling economic circumstances (we ain’t seen nothin’ yet)!  But I’m optimistic that the USA might limp to port without breaking up too badly.  It could mean that the Spirit of American Freedom will rise anew as a Phoenix from the ashes, but maybe with fewer states, as we shake off those who are too blindly blue and still foolishly worship at the alter of Socialism and Godlessness in spite of a mountain of evidence that such is what caused the calamity.  Our best hope is that enough will see the error of their ways once ruin is staring them in the face, and they will yet repent and be favored of God again before things like in my “hypothetical future” of section 5 occur. 

 

• Part 3: Potential outcomes of the Perfect Financial Storm




Part 3: Potential outcomes of the Perfect Financial Storm

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• Would such a disaster signal the Second Coming of Christ?
  
  
• Can we handle a Great Depression as well as ‘The Greatest Generation’ did?
  
  
• Hypothetical future:  Actions the Left may take if they are given power to solve it.
  
  
• The problems created when the millions addicted to X-box, tattoos, auto detailing, and internet porn suddenly find themselves without an income and a government with little ability to assist.
  
  
• What happens when foreign born PhD’s go home because it is too hard to stay here?
  
  
• 8-billion people are easy to support when times are good.  What if trucking can’t deliver necessities? What about endangered species and rain forests?
  
  
• Would the United States survive as 50?  Or perhaps might the “true red, white, and blue” reorganize into a smaller union? Would it mean war?
  
  
• Can we effectively defend ourselves against terrorist’s mass destruction plots (including nuclear) if we are reeling from internal chaos brought to a head by several generations of selfishness and lack of concern for the future?

Will “the next big challenge” signal the Second Coming?

I used to think that something like a major depression in my lifetime would surely be accompanied by the Second Coming - indeed it perhaps necessitated the Second Coming. Now I concede I have no idea.  People thought the same in the last great wars and depressions. I think we could easily suffer temporal trials of biblical proportions (unparalleled economic troubles, civil unrest, nukes, etc.), and yet many survive to watch things recover.  I do think it would be more evidence that we will ultimately arrive at “Armageddon” some day, but not necessarily with the next traumatizing event.

“The Greatest Generation” and their parents handled Depression, but can we?

I do think our nation may not handle a depression as well as we did in the 1930’s.  I don’t think as a whole they were vastly more virtuous than we are.  For example, they wrestled with racism probably more than we do, and I think the Depression was God’s way of calling many back to their roots after the “Roaring 20’s”.  Still, they were a people accustomed to hard manual labor, and their families were still largely God-fearing and intact.  Today there are too many poorly raised children of selfish and spoiled baby-boomers who are now poorly raising their own, and manual survival skills are lost.  Self defense could become pretty important.

Might the “tribes” among us separate peacefully?

I think true red, white, and blue would emerge from a massive depression (and likely related world-wide wars and strife), but perhaps not as the original 50 United States.  Maybe 40, or 25, or heaven forbid just 10.  An aspect of the Book of Mormon that intrigues me comes from 3^rd Nephi chapters 6 & 7.  Believe it or not, it tells how one faction seeking to take over the government then murdered the Chief Judge, hoping one of their own would be supported in his place. But the nation had become too diverse in their ways of living and thinking, and the nation inadvertently disintegrated into tribes. No one liked the new situation –not even the tribe that caused it.  Nonetheless they were unable to reorganize and reconcile their differences.  In the story, this was only three years before Christ came and destroyed the more wicked among them.

For a long time I’ve imagined that we also have potential for this.  There are many “tribes” among us:  Red States/Blue States (conservative/liberal); Gay; Black; Mexican; Christian, Atheist, many more smallish tribes.  If things get bad enough, I suppose we could see a relatively peaceful and willing dissolution of the union into smaller unions. If so, I will flee to the one that elects to renew the US Constitution pretty much the way it was originally intended, but with key amendments whose value was discovered the hard way: balanced budget, term limits, and voting allowed only by those not receiving federal aid.  Maybe a renewed but smaller nation could be one way the Constitution could be saved from “hanging by a thread”.

Scenario: Could this be in our future? (Imagine this story is just 2-years ahead)

The national economy continues to struggle.  We know that from 1996 to 2007, Republicans competed with Democrats to create wealth draining and personal responsibility draining programs.  Lack of fiscal discipline, along with other wimpy, weasely actions and inactions, angered the conservative base to punish their party, giving opportunity for the left to seize power in 2008 on vague promises of “hope and change.”  But being leftists and having the House, Senate, and Presidency, they were 10-times worse with the public purse than the darkest days of Republican power.  They further created extensive regulations across all aspects of the economy.

Nukes in Iran

The USA and UN’s “diplomacy” (wimpy economic sanctions on Iran and strong talk against Israel) doesn’t stop Iran from joining the nuclear club.  With that as a reality, the new “diplomatic solution” to dealing with a nuclear Iran is in part to provide billions in aid for Hezbollah and Iran (buying peace from the alligator until it’s powerful enough to eat you too), and holding “summits” to address their grievances against the West and Israel.

Mini-Mexico’s in every city

Ultimately, our royalty finally “cures” immigration with the same “comprehensive” reform that couldn’t even get a fence on the border.  Now immigration is legal via “guest workers”.  But our existing and new “guests” have no need to melt in the pot, since we bent over backwards to accommodate their language and culture.  This created “mini-Mexico’s” in every city with culture, language, TV & radio, and unwritten laws from the old country.  These barrios became very large, almost completely taking over the first suburban ring of lower-end homes and apartments in every major city.  The dems also nationalized health care (a disaster too overwhelming to cover here).

“Sixty years of partying like it’s 1999!”

By 2012 it was clear that Democrats have not been more successful in managing the economy.  Further, there are pressures on the economy that were pushed back for decades by self-seeking earlier generations – not just congress, but everything was an orgy of “eat, drink, and be merry”.  “Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country” – was a great aspiration, but the reality over decades became dominated by Takers succeeding at stealing from Producers so that they could continue in their drunken stupor.

So now it is clear to more and more economists that even a miracle of finally electing a more fiscally responsible congress would not bail the water out faster than it is now coming in.    The national debt is at $15 trillion; costs of food and fuel are high; inflation and interest rates are high; boomer retirement is beginning (along with their 401k draws on the Stock Market); boomer’s parents are hanging on to life in record numbers, but are doing so only off of high-taxes which support Medicare.   The generation that came of working age between 2000 and 2012 is relatively small (due to their parent’s and boomer-grandparent’s selfish refusal to ‘multiply and replenish the earth’).   That generation was also spoon-fed a “Beavis and Butthead” non-culture where too many are now lazy and unskilled at anything but X-box, rap music, auto detailing, and finding internet porn.

The “brain drain” from Asia reverses

With fewer workers and less wealth generated per worker, taxes have increased to the tipping point on those who still have wealth, will, or talent.  Where manufacturing jobs left in the 90’s, but were replaced by tech-sector jobs spun off in large part by foreign-born Ph.D.’s, the reverse now appears to be underway!  China and India are now showing themselves more capable than the Americans in a host of high talent areas. Foreign born Ph.D.’s (is there any other kind?) who used to stay are now going home to compete against us!

What of our own kids?

Ultimately the U.S. does greatly increase the H1-B visas as part of the long overdue and ineffective immigration reform package.  This did increase the number of PhD’s from China and India who stayed in America, subsidizing our knowledge gap.  Why are there few American-born PhD’s?  Decades of unloved, undisciplined, unchallenged children whose early years were marked by divorce, Twinkies, Ritalin, and 46 re-runs of The Little Mermaid as they were shuttled to unionized educrat propaganda centers.  Who knows where their sperm-donor is?  Their adolescent years saw them comatose on potato chips, substance abuse, orgies, and Grand Theft Auto.  Their destiny?  Foolish adult children – no PhD, but many have a valuable 4-year degree in sociology – which they acquired on just $100,000 of loans, and which they took to understand why they were dysfunctional! 

Now Asia’s low taxes and increased standards of living are attracting back their own citizens, many of whom believe the future back home is looking brighter than America’s. The trend was recently highlighted by a news story featuring California’s six-figure software engineers who have now trained their replacements in India, and their million-dollar Silicone Valley bungalows are going into default.   Bankruptcies which were high in good times are now higher than ever.   

Panic sets in

By 2014, the market has been up and down for years, but essentially flat. In part to the weak economy, but also to the massive need of retirees to pull out of the market and live off their 401(k)’s.  The market enjoys a brief 8% run up between 2014 and 2016, fueled more by gambling and the Greater Fool theory than by any underlying strength.   But by 2016 the writing is on the wall as foreign investors are now convinced of America’s inability to make good on T-bills, and we’re downgraded once again.  As the market slowly tumbles, retirees panic and move what’s left of their 401(k)’s into Asian markets, bonds, money markets, gold - anything but American or European firms.

A Mega-Depression?

By 2020, the full brunt of the problem has impacted the nation. The morass has gone on so long that people have called it a depression for a few years now, even though the stats have always looked better than they did in the 1930’s.  But the new panic, and collapse everywhere, has unemployment topping 35% and bank failures abound.  Armed robberies, murders, and suicides are at all-time highs.  Civil unrest is at a crescendo with everybody playing the blame game, and daily riots among the poorest demographics.

“Survival of the fittest” food chain

With sprawling American megopolises so much larger than during the depression of the 1930’s, and having consumed all the farmland for miles, it is difficult to supply enough food and fuel to such massive populations other than by truck.  Where previous generations enjoyed a measure of ability to live off the land while unemployed, by 2020 there are few skilled enough to even partially support themselves, and little productive land nearby.  Nearly all wild and domestic animals in and around the cities, with the exception of attack dogs maintained by the wealthy, have been consumed by the hungry masses who have finally discovered a successful weight loss program!  Trucks supplying food for the cities are routinely ambushed to supply the gangs that have resurged.  More brazen attackers have even begun taking on trucks that are accompanied by armed escort.

Voluntary Segregation

To be a plain old American became secondary to one’s hyphenated “tribe” decades earlier.  But with the current strife and blaming going on, “tolerance and diversity” of all peoples and views (with the exclusion of  conservatives and Christians of course) is no longer the highest value of the godless.  They’ve in fact embraced the opposite!  Mexican-Americans (Mexicans first, “guest workers” second) are no longer comfortable anywhere but in the south-west, and begin moving there en mass.  Gay-Americans (gay first, Americans second) likewise are streaming in from around the continent, occupying the Bay Area, northward. And what conservatives remained in those cities are all too happy to sell so they can get into a fly-over state.  African-Americans and Evangelical Christians have long been together in the South, but with their cultures and political views so significantly different, Christians migrate toward Texas and the mid-west, while African-Americans across the nation have begun a migration to the South-Atlantic.  Atheistic, elitist Americans who have long looked to Europe as their model of perfection are congregating in the New England area.

The Melting Pot cools and Tribes coagulate

By 2030 the migrations are largely complete.   The melting pot has cooled and coagulated.  What was once Americans of diverse traits, making them all minorities in some way, and hence a functioning system based on mutual respect, has given way to super-majorities in large and distinct geographic areas not unlike tribes or new nations.  In Lincoln’s day divorce was not an option either in marriage or as a nation. And though the fight was bitter, clearly the outcome was worth it!   In our times, “till death do us part” commitments are rare, and there is little reason to believe that either “Red States” or “Blue States” would go to war (physically) if each had become more red and more blue.  I suppose they would mutually agree that they would continue to trade with each other and maybe defend each other, but no longer will they be politically influenced by the other. 

What happens when 8-billion people are in economic peril?

World-wide, 2030’s 8-billion people, who could be sustained in good times, are having a hard time.  Extinctions and environmental destruction on a never before seen scale are occurring as hungry masses struggle for survival.  Wars are seemingly everywhere at once. Not a huge, single World War, but dozens of smaller wars – a World At War.  With modern killing efficiency, combined with mass starvation and disease, the population reduced from 2030’s 8-billion to 2050’s 5-billion before stability is regained and prosperity begins anew.

What’s going on among Muslims?

Islamic extremists have grown in power and influence.  They have successfully captured the governments of many nations.  Their propaganda, harping on the failure of the West and the pain that the infidel’s ways have inflicted on Muslims has been influential with the masses.  They claim the “Great Satan” has caused all this destruction, and they’re not entirely wrong.  They use Western troubles as proof that Allah is punishing the “Great Satan.”  

The position among Muslim regimes

Most muslim regimes agree with terrorists to some extent, and many secretly fund terrorists (plenty to spend when oil is over $200/barrel).   They recognize that if the terrorists make a nuclear strike on any Western nation, there will be a “civilians be damned” nuclear retaliation, but they fund terrorists anyway because their fear of terrorists is today, while their fear of nuclear annihilation is tomorrow. 

The position among the Muslim shadows

The terrorists, however, care only about murdering and further burdening the object of their enmity.  Of course they want to live to fight another day, but they are not afraid to die and will do so willingly if it looks like a job with high returns on the investment.  They’ve deceived themselves into believing they are doing the will of Allah even if their own people face total retaliation.  They know the Paper Tiger too well by now, and are convinced that even a nuclear strike will at most be met one for one, and more likely will be met with simply aggressive conventional tactics in an effort to at least temper large-scale, instantaneous collateral damage and save face in the international community.

Terrorists being more elusive than the regimes, will have removed themselves from likely targets in their homelands many years in advance of their nuclear attack - because America will target the obvious.   For nearly two decades they’ve had access to bulky weapons of mass destruction, but little confidence in their ability to deliver such weapons undetected.  Now 2030 technology and reduced scrutiny of the black market brought on by the chaos have finally allowed them to gain smaller devices.  They have more confidence they can deliver these “suitcase nukes” to targets undetected.

A successful, crippling attack

On May 23^rd, 2032, three of five cells succeed in detonating nuclear devices.  Their uranium-based suitcase nukes killed 100,000 in a suburb of Atlanta, and 320,000 in downtown London.  In a surprising but effective move, the third didn’t target a city directly, but instead destroyed the Glen Canyon Dam which holds the Colorado River’s Lake Powell.   Few were killed in the blast, but an ocean of water was set in motion which scoured the Grand Canyon, washed out the Hoover Dam and Lake Mead, killed tens of thousands in smaller towns on the banks of the Colorado. The genius in this device was the crippling effect it had on the entire southwest, from Denver to San Diego and everything in between – averaging a 30% exodus as it is impossible to supply stable water again for at least 10-years.

Yes, I’ve delved into the realms of science fiction with this one - but I can see a pretty believable Stephen King novel around some of these themes.   

Next, how to prepare for the potential of a Perfect Financial Storm.

 

• Part 4: Preparation for the Perfect Financial Storm




Part 4: Preparation for the Perfect Financial Storm

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• How not to build an ark: What we learned from our first Titanic of a home.
  
  
• The wealth our “ant-like” lifestyle will create will widen our opportunities and sphere of influence for good if the storm doesn’t occur, and help us temporally survive more easily than most if it does.
  
  
• Essential survival materials – how much you need, and why.
  
  

Make sure your boat won’t sink!

How do you survive a storm?  Build an ark - and you can’t wait until it rains!  Start by acquiring a life preserver and a fishing pole (eliminate consumer/auto debt, and build up a year’s supply of necessities).  Then build a life boat: build a business, acquire assets with positive cash flow (Robert Kyosaki’s definition of an asset), accelerate mortgage payments, and reduce extravagant living.  If you get that far before it rains, build a bigger boat and haul the life boat on board for use by your friends and relatives if so moved by the spirit.  Whatever floatation device you presently have, don’t overload it (with unrighteous consumer debt, or unsound investing that you haven’t fully researched) or you may capsize in a strong breeze, let alone the Storm!

 “I’ll huff, and I’ll puff, and I’ll blowww your house down!” – Wolf to pigs

There is much wisdom to be gained from the Three Little Pigs story.  Each pig looks at the world with a different paradigm.  The poor pig is paycheck to paycheck and consumed by vices, which is why he builds of straw – that’s all he can afford given his lifestyle.  The middle-class pig has a high work ethic, and manages to pull together something better than straw, but he is then easily enticed with “stuff”: Hardwood floors, fancy molding, big-screen HD-TVs, granite countertops, and he takes a cruise every winter.  The structure has no strength to resist wolves, but as long as there are now wolves, his lifestyle is a thing of envy.  He’s heard stories of wolves with strong lungs that existed before they were born.  But he’s convinced the Wall Street and Washington pigs have eliminated all the wolves, so his “stuff” is perfectly secure.

Sadly, these pigs squander their chances to prepare.  The third pig earns no more than his middle-class relative, and really isn’t so much smarter, but he recalls his grandparents quivering voice when recanting the tale of the last wolves (depression, wars, etc.)  He believes wolves might come back.  It pains him a bit to see all the fun and fancy the others are having – knowing he could have the same if he’d quit preparing for fabled wolves that “experts” assure are now extinct.  But the day of the wolf comes after all.  The lifestyles that defined the foolish pigs were lost, and the pigs themselves are eaten (in the Grimm version).  While the wise pig had less “stuff” under his roof, he kept what he had.

In a more “politically correct” version, the pigs run quickly to get inside the brick house of their relative.  My aim is to avoid conspicuous or unnecessary consumption, and instead work while the day lasts on the strength of my walls.  I hope to gain enough strength and space inside that I’ll be able to help others who’ve had their houses blown down, if the spirit so dictates: financial resources, food storage principles, and physical/spiritual/mental strength.

Jesus taught similarly.  He warned that “the wise man built upon a rock, while the foolish man built upon the sand.”  Through his atonement he has built the ultimate “brick house”, and offers to save us inside, though we don’t deserve it.  I want to be like Jesus for as many as I can.

Our Family’s first “investment”

Ever seen “The Money Pit”?  Our first “ark” was like the Titanic.  It would have worked out ok if I’d left well enough alone, but I wasted a lot of years and money on a remodeling project that was the equivalent of a face-lift for an 85 year-old grandma with terminal cancer. Where we had considered buying a more structurally sound duplex in a lesser-but-still-good part of town, we instead bought a run-down dive on an incredible property.  Instead of an effective payment of $400/month (subsidized by renting the other half), we had an effective payment of almost $1600/month when factoring in the trips to Home Depot to gussy up that grandma for her “Perfect Storm” funeral (the new buyer).  On top of that I lost nearly every Saturday for four years to “the project”.

When our family was large enough, we concluded that while the property and neighborhood were wonderful, it was simply unwise and impractical to expand this home to fit our needs.  The new owner tore down the home to put a starter-castle in its place a year later. As I took pictures of my beautiful walls, fireplace, and windows giving way under demolition, I learned that “stuff” must “go the way of all the earth”, and it is pointless to become attached to material things.

While we lost, we really gained

Where we can clearly see the fiscal folly of that decision, we felt inspired to live there nonetheless, and don’t question that the Lord had other purposes for our living there.  Possibly it was His wisdom in letting us see so plainly our poor habits of stewardship and temptations toward material things, that we will perhaps be more temporally secure than we would have been if we’d purchased the duplex in the first place.  I estimate the decision we made compared to our other best choice has set us back between $100,000 - $200,000 in net worth over about a 6-year span.  One good aspect is that we had to live frugally in every other part of our lives, to finance “the project”, and now that’s the way we prefer to live.  We’ll probably make back what we lost and to spare because our vision was opened to the value of frugality.

Making sure we’ll float

Anticipating this Perfect Storm, we are aggressively trying to “build an ark” by increasing our income, decreasing our outgo, paying off debts, and acquiring survival aids. It is challenging to live among such affluence knowing that lenders will let us have a lot of “cool stuff.”  Instead we follow a plan that we hope will leave us well off if calamity never strikes, or “less miserable than others” if it does. We haven’t completely lost our marbles - we still have almost everything anybody else has - but we buy most things used (Car auctions, DI, EBay, Craigslist.org).  At the dollar movies, we never buy popcorn, and we decided we can put sprinklers off and move the hose around for a few more years.  Unfinished sheet rock and carpet that won’t seem to clean anymore also looks surprisingly nice against the thought of cramming our 6-kids in a 3-bedroom apartment and living on macaroni & cheese because we were on the edge of our income when The Storm rolled in.

We have found that this is how we must live if my wife is to remain a stay-at-home mother, and we still hope to obtain enough means to more easily support ourselves and perhaps a few friends or relatives in a depression economy. We do not feel like we’re missing out on much living like the ant.

What are “survival materials”?

In our church, our prophet has advised that we all acquire a full year’s worth of survival materials, primarily food.  I suspect that most active members probably have a lot more storage than the average American, but I also suspect that most of us would fall short of a full year’s supply.  When I let my brain wander to “ok, Wal-Mart is ransacked, anarchy reigns, and has anyone seen Fido?”, then here is my list of what I think is a higher priority than fancy molding and an HDTV.

Bulk, long lasting, cheap “insurance” food:  A family of eight such as mine, with kids all under 14, requires 3,000 pounds of dry foods per year according to the calculators on the LDS www.providentliving.org.  A 5-gallon bucket of wheat is about 35 pounds, so that means I should be able to look around my house and find the equivalent of 85, 5-gallon buckets of stuff to be in compliance.  I just recently achieved about that much.  This seemingly phenomenal 1.5 tons is really just 18 ounces per person per day – the weight of an average-sized can of soup per day.  Some say, “only buy what you can stand to eat”.  I think that is too often used as an excuse to avoid getting very much at all.  To that I say, “Yeah, I’ve got maybe 3-months of root beer, ketchup, and other “normal stuff” that we do rotate, but I’ve also got about 1-ton of wheat, rice, and beans I hope I never have to use and can compost 30-years from now.  It is just good, cheap insurance (actually my wife makes some pretty good stuff with wheat, so it will be rotated before 30 anyway, and we’ll eat better in “the disaster” because she already knows how to use it).

Hard assets:  Some gold or silver is great to have on hand.  It tends to just rise with inflation in normal times, and is not typically a wealth-building investment unless you’re lucky and time markets correctly.   However, it can be a wealth securing investment against chaos.  Though most think “it could never happen here”, it is possible that circumstances would emerge here spawning hyper-inflation.  I lived in Brazil during hyper inflation and now have a whole Monopoly set of real money !  Bills that were worth $20 were worth about 5-cents two years later.  People dump money in the streets.  At times like that, precious metals go through the roof.  Since gold is so expensive, I prefer silver in a safe deposit box, or an “X-marks the spot.” It’s a supplement to food storage since it is somewhat liquid and can be used to purchase things you didn’t have in storage.  To me it makes sense to have a thousand dollars or so in precious metal after you’ve got food essentials, but before you pay off the house or invest seriously in 401k, mutual funds, or other on-paper asset that can be “zapped” from existence by economic hemorrhaging.  I found www.bulliondirect.com to be a decent outlet for silver coins. 

 

Other items:     Look around and ask,   “If tattoo-face and his pals are over-running grocery stores,  what else is pretty nice to have in your storage?”   TP, toothpaste, soap all come to mind.  Guns are also useful.  Rifles for hunting, but also a quick access,   quick maneuver pistol so that tattoo-face can be aided in seeing the light (if necessary, the light at the end of the tunnel – probably  a red light of fire and brimstone.)  I would also like to have a  street-legal motorcycle for fuel efficiency, as it may be the most practical way of getting around when fuel is hard to come by.  A means of warming the house a bit that is not dependent on utility infrastructure could  also come in handy ( wood stove and extra blankets).  I have a kerosene heater, but those must be used with care to avoid CO poisoning.




• Part 5: Spiritual preparation for the storm
  
  
  

  Part 5: Spiritual preparation for storms is essential

  • The attitude of Job: be responsible over earthly stewardships, but be prepared to “bless the name of the Lord” even if you find yourself in hardship someday.
    
    
  • The best protection money can buy – through Tithing!
    
    
  • If something remotely like this occurs, is it “the end of the world?”
    
    

  Even with just a life jacket, God will provide if you’ve been wise.

  Some might say I’m blinded to more important spiritual truths.  I hope I am not.  I really want to just live the best life I can, but be prepared both spiritually and temporally as much as possible.  So you’re pretty far from an “ark”? Then work first on getting a lifejacket, then a lifeboat, then… Be wise with what you have, and always pay tithing, and I believe God will shield you from the worst of it.

  But even if He allows me to go clear to the bottom as He did with Job, and I find I lose all my resources, I still want to report back that I was not slothful and unwise.  I did not bury my talents, but I invested as seemed wise to me, but I simply lost. 

  Catch the preparedness fever from the masters

  Dave Ramsey is fun!  He has a radio show built around the theme “Where debt is dumb, cash is king, and the paid off home mortgage replaces the BMW as the status symbol of choice.”  Dave has several books out.  One is “Financial Peace University”.  He is a strong Evangelical Christian, advocates tithing first, and gives a lot of great religious perspective to the reasons to get out of debt.  And of course you probably know of Clark Howard.  He’s not so much about getting out of debt as he is helping you know a million and one ways to save a buck.  He also has some decent books.  www.ClarkHoward.com is great.

  Glenn Beck I mentioned already.  He has no particular advice for saving money.  He’s just convinced that a major war with radical Islam is building quickly, and that our economy is under major threat.  He thinks we’re not doing enough about either, and that could mean a whole lot of nasty.  He advises to do what you can to prepare yourself and those you love just in case it’s necessary. 

  Robert Kiyosaki is the author of the “Rich Dad, Poor Dad” series.  I’ve read probably 8 of his books and really enjoyed them.  He grew up in Hawaii where his real dad was poor and destined to remain so.  His best friend’s dad started out the same poor, but was doing things that led to a billion dollar empire.  It is a story about how he learned good things from both, and his books are his effort to try and pass on principles of wealth that he learned.  It is where I trace a lot of my fire for investing, real estate, and business building.  Don’t pay full price J!  Get it at the library or used from Amazon.com. 

  Tithing: The best spiritual means of assuring temporal survival

  A lifelong commitment to render unto the Lord what is the Lord’s will not go unnoticed.  There is no promise we’ll get temporally rich from paying tithing, but there is a promise that “blessings will rain down”.  Of course “blessings” need not be in the form of money.  However, I do believe we can safely assume that the Lord is much less likely to leave us truly destitute if we have made these sacrifices with a pure heart.

  Even if you are not temporally prepared when world events carry us in their whirling winds, if you have repented enough to acquire a life jacket, I believe the Lord will respect that.  You will then make it through challenges better than if you finally fall on your knees and beat upon the door of the ark when it is evident to all that a Storm of Storms is here.

  I love life no matter what.  What an amazing experience this is.  I hope you have profited from this series and will do further research to confirm for yourself whether what I’ve written holds any water.  A quick search of Google on key words such as  “Perfect Financial Storm”, “bankruptcy rates”, or any others you can think of can yield a wealth of objective sources confirming that this is a real possibility and no laughing matter.  So many are panicked about global warming, and have no idea that the debt monster is poised to eat us all for lunch.  Then the terrorist monsters inside and out will attempt to bring death by a thousand cuts while we’re wrestling to get by.  If so, we’ll have global warming after all – from the intense heat of war and economic failure.

  Looking on the bright side – we may well repent when we’re in pain

  Are dark days straight ahead?  Yes. But that doesn’t mean we won’t have bright days ahead also.  Take what we know of 1927-1947.  1927 was the heart of “the roaring 20’s”.  You’d never convince people they “should prepare for disaster”.  The World War was behind them, people were getting cars, washers – everything looked great.  Yet in 1935 they were befuddled and dumbfounded that such an economic disaster could have happened so quickly.  Surely there was great speculation that “the Second Coming” must be right around the corner.  Then it got worse before it got better.  Hitler was supported in large part because his promises sounded great in the desperation of the depression.  But in those darkest days, great days were still ahead!  The whole storm only lasted about 16 years, and ever since has been quite good!

  Hope and pray it never happens, but prepare today as if the Storm were a sure thing.  I once heard depressions seem to occur on 75 year cycles.  It’s been 77 years since the storm of 1929.  Will there soon be a 25, 100, or 500 year storm?  God may grant a medium scale, 25 year storm if we repent now on a large scale.  I think it will be comparable to the 1929-1945 storm (maybe bigger, maybe smaller, but bigger than anything experienced since 1945). 

  I fully expect to see a 100-200 year storm during my working years.  But even if we see a millennial storm, don’t lose hope for a brighter day.  A 100-year magnitude storm might last 15-years, and a millennial storm might last much longer.  But all throughout there will be chances to smile, and we will surely emerge to a happy time once again, and maybe all without the Second Coming being part of that happy time.   Job endured so much, and even if he had lost all hope of relief in this life, he still had confidence in a wonderful afterlife.  Ultimately God did restore him to great happiness even in this life.

  What good is “Talk of Storms”

  So is there any value in “scaring people” with all this talk of Great Storms?  YES!  If you were in 1922 and someone could convince you that a serious depression and another world war were relatively close, wouldn’t you want to know that?  How could you prepare?  First, by not squandering your money and taking unwise risks when everyone else was.  When prophets say “we’d better give heed to gathering storms”, does it make sense to get a boat, snowmobiles, and a McMansion all on credit just because the loan officer finagled a way to do it?  Remember, millions in India could be mastering your job!

  I painted a “worst case scenario” here just to get you to think about what might be possible if the nation and world won’t repent even when in the throws of desperation.  I’m very optimistic that we will begin to repent, and do what we have to do to our enemies, our politicians, our addictions, and our own hearts, once pain is seriously upon us.  I am much more skeptical that we will take the hard steps before pain is inflicted.  History proves that pain is a necessary part of learning.  If we’d engaged in war with Hitler while he was still weak, maybe the Nazi’s could have been ousted  on less than 100,000 lives rather than dozens of millions.  But the future was muddy enough at the time that few saw how bad it could get, so even a war of 100,000 seemed too much.  Had it happened that way it would be demonized by the left today as a “terrible war of aggression that was too high in price” – yeah right.

  In Iraq, Bush’s folks had no idea how bad it could get, so they did dumb stuff like “respected the enemy’s funeral”, and “let top bad guys get away because they were in Mosques and schools”.  Now what could have been a small war if it were taken seriously ballooned more than it needed to because Jihadists are easy to recruit when all the world sees how politically correct our media and our push-over citizenry forces our military to be.  It makes them believe they can win!  (And they can, up until we get REALLY mad, which will never happen because we’re a paper tiger).  That’s where the Bush admin. went wrong.  They thought the whole thing could be tidied up from afar – where we were strong.  They didn’t realize they’d end up occupying Iraq, and that world media scrutiny would hold them to unattainable standards for collateral damage.  So we just get killed because we can’t fight back. 

  So I conclude that the pride cycle will come full circle, and we will suffer intensely within just a few years.  But no matter how large this particular storm – even if it is the Storm of Storms before the Second Coming (which I don’t think it is), the righteous will recover and see bright, happy days on the other side (whether the other side of the storm, or other side of the veil), just as God promised Noah with the Rainbow.

  If you have gained any value from this, please feel free to email it or send a link to www.latterdaylogic.com for those you believe may be receptive to this essay.

   
  

(Each are explained in the article)
10. Truth is stranger than fiction – and it is beautiful!
9. Hail to the Prophet
8. Independence, Preparation, Practicality
7. Saved by grace, after all that we can do
6. Focus on the Family
5. I am a Child of God (Children’s Song)
4. Kool-Aid – best drink ever!
3. He who has eyes to see, let him see.
2. Plan of Salvation
1. “I Believe in Christ” (Popular LDS Hymn)

My wife and I recently had a very nice dinner and visit with a leader in my company who was in Salt Lake for a meeting. We had a chance to stroll around Temple Square, though most things were closed.  This man is quite spiritually minded himself and I’ve enjoyed brief conversations on religion with him in the past.  He’s had very little exposure to Latter-Day Saints, so it was a lot of fun for us both to visit with him about life, skim the surface of things LDS, and let him know how much Christ’s gospel as embodied in this church has blessed our lives.