• 19 points to consider that when combined suggest a serious depression may be well under way within 10 to 20 years.
  
• American life is like being on a runaway train, with a drunk engineer at the helm (Uncle Sam) who has lost his sense of the dangers or any sense of duty.  Worse, the passengers and crew are entirely elated at the incredible speed, and no one wants to see the train slow down (repent) anyway.
  
• The Titanic is also a fitting metaphor
  
• I’m no researcher or scholar, so this section provides links to others who are.
  

Many are convinced that global warming, and a host of other “ills” that they could seemingly trace back to the “evils” of the United States (or in normal-speak, the goodness of the U.S.) , will be the things that bring disaster upon us. I think they’ve missed the forest for the trees. I am convinced that hard times of Biblical proportions could easily be part of my generation’s future, but it won’t come from what they say is bad about America (and is actually good), but it is more likely to come from what is actually bad about America and the world.

I am certainly not a prophet, and I’m not sure of the details for how this could unfold, but it doesn’t take a prophet to read many of the signs. I also believe we can learn from the warnings of ancient and modern prophets and even receive a measure of personal revelation that can motivate our present in ways that will best prepare us for hard times that could unfold in our future.

I’m more convinced all the time that a serious economic depression will probably be underway in about 10-20 years. A “Perfect Storm” seems to be brewing. There are many problems that by themselves are large, and instead of resolving them we’ve been pushing them further into the future. There will come a point where they can be pushed no further, and in fact many will converge to create monster waves and winds. I’ve wanted to gather my reasoning into one place for quite some time. I feel weak in defending this feeling partly because while I read a lot and follow the news as best as I can, it’s hard to remember much of it long enough to connect the dots. I’ll try anyway. I also enjoy keeping track of what I think may happen and compare it with what actually happens many years from now.Why a depression?

1. Federal Bankruptcy?: The Federal government is $9 trillion in debt – an entire year’s worth of GDP. It seems like a looming monster that could eat the country alive if there are bumps in the road. Possibly the largest “national security” threat there is, but few see it as such.
   
2. Personal Bankruptcy?: Everyone else is in debt also. One could say this has always been the case, since debt is necessary for a home – but this kind of debt is financing luxury and affluent living. Americans are addicted to debt.
   
3. Lost Opportunity:  China and India are rising powers. I wonder if God is smiling on them, as he has always raised the humble and humbled the proud. They are humble people who are trying very hard to learn the sciences. We are passing the technological torch to them.
   
4. Our kids are not doing well. Single parent families are everywhere. Kids are unloved and burdened with too much. Huge numbers will not receive the education they need to succeed. Also, they are not receiving the character they need to succeed.
   
5. Mass gluttony, licensiousness, addition:  Vices of all kinds are widespread and powerful – with pornography the most recent wide-spread addiction whose maladies are likely to be the most destructive of all, and the evil fruits of which will not fully ripen for yet a few years.
   
6. The Nation God smiled on will be humble, or it will not be God’s Nation:  If the Book of Mormon says anything at all, it says this most loudly: that prosperity is often followed by pride and a turning away from God, which always results in the loss of prosperity and hopefully a return to God. God is not against “tough love” or “strong medicine” if that’s what it takes to get us to remember Him.
   
7. Prophetic Warning:  In 1998 President Gordon B. Hinkley warned in the Priesthood session of General Conference about the need to be temporally prepared. He noted the high bankruptcy rate even in the midst of tremendous prosperity. He talked of Pharaoh’s dream of 7 years of prosperity as had never been known followed by 7 years of famine as had never been known. He said “There is a portent of stormy weather ahead to which we’d better give heed”. Portent in the dictionary can mean “omen of pending calamity”.
   
8. “Seven Years” is up:  The USA and the world have now had 60 years of prosperity unlike anything ever known. Though the Dow-Jones idol worshipers think they’ve safe guarded against depressions, the One True God has repeatedly shown the wisdom of men to be folly.
   
9. Baby boomer massive “scheduled market divestment”: I’ve read several books that take note of the law that created 401(k) retirement accounts (ERISA), and recognize that in about 2012, the Baby-Boomers will begin withdrawing money from the stock market en mass. Some writers are convinced that at the least this will trigger a downturn, and some forecast depression. With millions of non-investors in the market, it could also cause a panic where even those who don’t need to withdraw, still move their money in an effort to avoid losing it. I say 10-20 years above in part because, while all of this stuff could bring it on at any time, boomers retiring is a known event and could act as a trigger to the house of cards.
   
10. Social Security is shaky:  Social Security used to have 17 workers for every retiree (I think). Soon it will have only 3. The elderly are also living longer. This is undoubtedly good, but the cost of their care will also undoubtedly land on their children (me). Many of their children will not be prepared to deal with it, since they really “needed” a plasma TV.
    
11. Keep up with Jone’s at all cost!:  Home equity loans, interest only mortgages – all are evidence of our willingness to figuratively “drive with the wheels right on the edge of the cliff” – and all to keep up with the Jones’. Any bumps will push a lot of people over the edge.
    
12. Taxes are high and there is no reason to believe they will come down. Too many unionized bureocrats on white-collar welfare.
    
13. Wickedness outpacing righteousness?:  I think righteousness is growing among millions, but I believe wickedness may be growing among millions more. (Some individuals are simultaneously improving in some categories, and digressing in others, with the average of their tug-a-war yet to be determined). Much of the above reflects wickedness, and even wicked seeds sewn many years ago (like boomers not wanting to have kids themselves – and hence not enough people to support them). Still, the fruit of wickedness is ultimately pain, and part of the value of pain is to turn our attention back to God.
    
14. Statesman smothered by weeds:  A 150-year beautiful garden of Statesmen has been taken over by Morning Glorepublicans and Dandycrats - some of the hardest to remove noxious weeds known to man!  In my mind, the lesser evil is the former.  I’ve seen pictures of the garden and I’m not sure how to get back to that beautiful state!  Conservative politicians shy away from challenging leftist policies that would surely reap pain in the end, and have themselves helped spend us into bankruptcy. (I’m convinced America is already bankrupt, but for some reason our “lenders”, whoever they are, haven’t picked up the clues yet). Actions that could improve things are not pursued aggressively. Instead we fight and argue endlessly over lesser things. “Where, oh where are the Statesmen?”
    
15. How good are our walls?:  The economy is more fragile than most recognize, though September 11th made many aware of that. We are very proud of our great and spacious buildings. Everyone is so sure our “strong walls” (military, intelligence, etc.) will keep the enemies out. Not only can enemies get around the walls, but we can’t even maintain the walls with our present internal strife (can’t seem to build one at the Mexican border), let alone if we have economic woes to deal with.
    
16. Slaves to world and activist opinion.  We ARE the paper tiger!  Cancerous hosts, enemies within and without, that wish for nothing more than to dedicate their lives in an effort to destroy us and all that is good, and us determined to go home and try witch doctor herbal remedies because our first dose of chemotherapy (Iraq) hurt a little just like the doctor said it would.
    
17. Crap happens, and we’re exposed!  Great troubles have been common in all ages, to include the Great Depression and two world wars very recently. It is foolish to live life completely exposed to such ravages, assuming such can never occur simply because it hasn’t during our life times.
    
18. Bible assures us troubled times will continue:  John’s Revelation pronounces great woes upon the world in the last days, right up until the Second Coming. Good triumphs in the end, but “wish it would end soon” days will be with us all the way there.
    
19. Prophetic temporal advice:  Never-ending warnings from modern prophets to acquire food and essentials to last a year or more.
    

Since I was first able to comprehend a larger world, life has felt like a train that is ever accelerating and currently moving 160 mph on a track that was designed for 60 mph. The steam engine’s boiler was not designed for pressure like this. While the fat and happy engineer (us and our leaders) senses somehow that this may be dangerous; he is too excited with the speed to slow down even if he were sober enough to remember how; and he is too confident in the systems he thinks he knows so well. As a civil engineer, I wonder which part of the system will give way first and how long it will take. It doesn’t much matter what triggers the disaster: if the wheels come off, or the boiler bursts, or if we skip the track, the result will be a whole lot of crunched metal. I hope for a hero as in oft-repeated Hollywood train scenes, making his way to the front along the top hoping to engage the breaks and save us in the nick of time from the seemingly unavoidable. But I am in a lonely theater as I watch, supposing myself to be one in a thousand or even ten-thousand who is sober enough to sense a potential pending calamity.  

Being in no position to stop it, I feel grateful that I am aware of it. At least I can prepare myself and those in my circle temporally, mentally, and spiritually. I can live like the ant and not the grasshopper. I often think of the words of Christ, “He who has eyes to see, let him see”. I am so blind in so many ways, but this is the one thing I feel like I am seeing more clearly than most.
 

If you prefer, “The Titanic” may be a fitting analogy.  Remember in the recent film that the captain plowed through waters known for icebergs while the passengers were unaware?  When they hit one, the impact didn’t even spill the Champaign.  It seemed to most that nothing serious had happened, so the song and dance continued.  Remember the engineer who designed the ship?  He quickly summoned a report on the damage, and completely zoned off into despair as he heard “5 ruptured compartments”.  He knew mathematically their arrival at the bottom of the Atlantic was now only a matter of time, yet in his astonishment he could not muster the good sense to begin immediate action on a plan to fully utilize available life boats.  The passengers, even when faced with the obvious conclusion that all was lost, still held out hope to the end that by some miracle the ship would not sink. I believe we’ve been hitting icebergs, and that it’s hard to tell how many compartments have been ruptured.  Is our sinking now inevitable or can we still limp to shore?  I believe these things: 

1. We should avoid further selfishness and sinning that equates to rupturing more compartments;
2. God can help us repair the damage if we repent early enough, or send a rescue before too many have drown and we fully sink if we end up repenting late, but still repent;
3. I am skeptical that those now living will choose the “early repentance” option in large enough numbers to offset those who want to continue endulging or join in the orgy. 

Hence, I conclude that the ship will sink (i.e. we will likely endure a depression, but possibly also other types of disasters).  Our best hope is that enough will see the error of their ways once ruin is staring them in the face, and they will yet repent and be favored of God again before things like in my “hypothetical future” of section 5 occur. 

Like Pharaoh at the time of Moses, if one or two minor plagues won’t bring us to beg forgiveness and obey His commandments, God will crush us with 10 horrible plagues if we insist on denying and defying Him.

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